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Hispanic Highlights of the Midterm Elections in Texas - 2022

November 14, 2022

  • Governor Abbott won reelection by almost 1 million votes in 2022 and the Texas Hispanic vote was a major focus of his election coalitional support. Republican victories down the ballot were felt prominently in South Texas where the GOP continued to win  races after targeting this historically Democratic region of Texas.  Gone are the days of unquestioned Democratic control of Hispanics in South Texas, as Republicans have aggressively gained new  important footholds in the region. 

  • Despite efforts by the national Democratic Party to make Texas more of a leftist state, Hispanics are now assuring the GOP consistency of their continued majority. According to exit polls, Governor Abbott received 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas and that has helped Republicans in Texas to have now won 166 consecutive statewide elections over the last 25 years.  The Houston Chronicle (November 11, 2022) headlined, “Blowout Midterm Losses Leave Texas Democrats Again Searching for Statewide Competitiveness”.

  • Republicans gained a new political platform in South Texas in which to launch further inroads – winning the 15th District U.S. House of Representatives. Two other U.S. House Districts which were hotly contested will be top targets for the national Republican Party in the next presidential election.  The Texas GOP also gained a new State Representative in South Texas and held control of two other state districts traditionally held by Democrats. These wins are “ significant gains that would’ve unimaginable a few cycles ago “.  ( The Texas Tribune, 11/10/22 )

WSJ: Democrats are in Trouble with Hispanics

"The following are excerpts from a Wall Street Journal opinion piece which was apparently written to be a final red flag message to the Democratic Party that the Republican Party is now achieving electoral parity and is taking the Hispanic voting population in a different cultural and economic direction.  Someday historians will look back at opinions like this and say the evidence for this transformation of Hispanics being the new swing vote began in the early 2020's of U.S. political history.  As we now know, the first precursor was the 2016 Presidential election based upon the immigration issue and the economy."

See if you agree that the US is now at a pivotal political moment in history.

-- V.  Lance Tarrance, Jr.

TLC Hispanic Realignment Survey

TLC, along with Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights, Leslie Sanchez of Impacto Group, and V. Lance Tarrance, Jr., led a year-long Hispanic Realignment survey. Through this work, we are able to provide campaigns up and down the ballot with the tools they need to identify and message conservative Latinos across Texas.

Some key learnings:

  • Republicans tied with Democrats across the Hispanic in key regions in the 2022 midterm race.
  • 61 percent are bothered by the current direction of the Democratic Party.
  • Few are satisfied with the direction of the country, and they blame Biden.
  • Conservative Hispanic values translate to movement towards Republicans.
  • Hispanics surveyed favor tougher border security measures.
  • Hispanics overwhelmingly support more oil and gas exploration and jobs in Texas.