From the Texas Tribune:
JUNE 11, 2021
George P. Bush’s first trip outside Austin after he announced his campaign for attorney general wouldn’t surprise anyone watching Texas politics these days: Like many other ambitious Republicans, he visited South Texas.
The state’s current land commissioner, who is seeking to unseat incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton, spoke with members of the Border Patrol union along the Rio Grande, met with high school students in San Juan and helped clean beaches on South Padre Island.
It was part of a flurry of GOP activity in the heavily Hispanic region this month. Nearly a year ago, Republicans’ relative success in the areas along the Texas-Mexico border helped them fend off the strongest challenge to their political dominance by Texas Democrats in decades. Now the GOP wants to take the fight to the Democrats in next year’s midterm elections and attack one of the state’s most reliably blue regions.
The work has already begun.
In addition to last week’s trip by Bush, Associated Republicans of Texas, a GOP political group, announced this week that it would target six Democratic state House seats in South Texas, citing growing support for Republicans in the area. On Thursday, Gov. Greg Abbott held a border summit featuring local leaders from both parties. At the event, he announced that plans were in the works "for the state of Texas to begin building the border wall," but he didn't give details.
And in a development Saturday that gained national attention, a former chairman of the Hidalgo County GOP was elected mayor of McAllen, long a Democratic stronghold. According to the county party, Javier Villalobos was the first registered Republican elected mayor of the city this century.
“There’s something going on down there,” said Aaron De Leon, political director for Associated Republicans of Texas. “We see a great opportunity in South Texas and we want to take the offensive and take it to the Democrats in what has historically been their territory.”
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June 10, 2021
by Lance Tarrance, Jr.
There were a number of key municipal city elections in Texas that stunned political observers because Republicans were elected with Hispanic support. These city elections in Texas are traditionally nonpartisan, but the shift in Hispanic support of conservative Republicans attracted national media news. These small and medium size city outcomes are now being linked to the Hispanic election shifts that started in last November’s Presidential election.
Democrats are now raising concern that they are losing valuable ground with the Hispanic vote in Texas.
To quote one Democratic Congressman in the Rio Grande Valley: “Democrats have a big problem in Texas”.
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May 17, 2021
V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
The big new census reports that will be coming out in the 2020 U.S. Census will show the new trends reshaping the electoral battlefield of Texas and the U.S. In the U.S. today, the Hispanic population makes up 18% of the total population, however in Texas, it is now almost 40% (39.34%). These population trends will immediately translate in how political influence will be measured over the next ten years. For example, Texas gained two new Congressional House seats (over half came from new Hispanics) and this will make Texas even more important in terms of its political power.
Texas is part of the U.S. population shift away from the Northeast and Midwest to the Southern and Western states. Only thirteen states experienced double digit population increases over the past decade – and eleven of these fastest growing states were in the South and the West. Texas, for example, has now over 11 million Hispanic residents.
The Bottom Line is that over the last decade the shift in U.S. population with its Electoral College votes and seats in the House of Representatives is away from the Northeast and Upper Midwest to the prominent Sunbelt states of Texas and Florida. One hundred years ago, in 1920, the Census showed that 60% of the nation’s total population was in the Northeast and the Midwest. However, in 2020, the population flipped to more than 60% of the population in the South and West; and in the so-called Northern regions, just 38%.
The accompanying New York Times article on May 2, 2021, and The New Yorker article of December 31, 2020 (see below), show the political influence of Hispanics starting to shift, particularly in rural, conservative areas. The new Republican-Conservative coalition for the future appears to be coalescing with New and Old South voters, along with Midwestern Rust Belt voters and a shift of new Hispanic voters -- in effect, the working middle class of America. See the post-election analysis by the New Yorker magazine which showed how Democrats are having a hard time understanding the Hispanic voting shifts.
New York Times:
In South Texas, Hispanic Republicans Try to Cement the Party’s Gains
The New Yorker:
Deconstructing the 2020 Latino Vote
Tejano Day, an initiative of Texas Latino Conservatives, is inching closer to to becoming a reality in Texas!
From Bloomberg News:
Key to a Biden upset in Texas is the Hispanic vote, with Latinos making up 30% of all eligible voters. Nationally, Latino participation in early voting is more than double what it was in 2016. Like the rest of the country, the vast majority of Hispanic votes in Texas is expected to go to Biden, and Harris’s visit to McAllen will take her to the heart of the four-county Rio Grand Valley border region. But polling has been all over the place, leaving room for a stronger-than-expected showing of conservative Latino voters.
“In Texas, the Latino vote has tended to lean Democratic, but that’s exactly it: It leans Democratic,” said Renée Cross, senior director at the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. “I don’t think there’s any doubt that the majority of Hispanics will vote for Biden, but the question is how many of the ones who vote Republican will vote for Trump.”
October 15, 2020
HOUSTON – Texas Latino Conservatives issued the following statement regarding Gov. Greg Abbott’s intent to appoint former Justice Rebeca Huddle to the Texas Supreme Court.
“Rebeca Huddle has been a principled leader in the Texas judicial system since her appointment to the First Court of Appeals in 2011 by Gov. Rick Perry. In her time on the court, she gained extensive knowledge of our state’s appellate system, authoring more than 400 majority opinions and adjudicating more than 1,000 appeals. Ms. Huddle’s Hispanic heritage illustrates the power and potential of the conservative Latino community. She will be a strong addition to the Texas Supreme Court and Texas Latino Conservatives looks forward to her long career on the Court protecting the rights of Texans”.
Texas Latino Conservatives is a statewide organizing force of the conservative Latino community working to increase Latino representation and participation in government.
Download the Press Release
September 29, 2020
Texas Latino Conservatives recently conducted a live-phone survey of 500 independent and Republican Latino-registered voters in Texas. This is the first poll of its type and was conducted August 28 - September 3. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%
A new poll conducted recently (June 2020) of six Hispanic battleground states (which includes Texas and five others) for the 2020 Presidential election showed a great concern for the campaign of Democratic candidate Joe Biden. The concern centers on the fact that only 59% of Latinos said they intend to vote in November.
Since 73% of Latinos who were registered to vote had said in February that they were certain to vote, this "low rate"as reported by Latino Decisions polling firm is definitely warranted. The poll also showed less than 50% of Latino voters under 30 years of age said that they intended to vote. This was a big problem for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, in 2016, as well.
The bottom line is that the Hispanic vote in 2020 may not have the enthusiasm to go to the polls in large numbers for the presumptive Democratic candidate.
Read the Full Article in Newsweek
In a press conference today Conservative Latino leaders Luis LaRotta and Orlando Sanchez called on the State of Texas to implement a Sales Tax Holiday through the Covid-19 pandemic.
With 2.5 million Texans unemployed, a large number of those being minority working poor, Texas Latino Conservatives believes implementing a tax-free Holiday through the end of August would help working class Texans struggling to put food on the table.
Comment by V. Lance Tarrance, TLC Chief Strategist and Pollster
On June 18th, the Supreme Court granted permanent legal status to immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally as children.
This particular political and humanitarian issue, which has been a political football between the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branch, has now been decided by the Supreme Court in favor of DACA but by a close 5 to 4 decision.
However, in a recent PEW study conducted a few days before the Supreme Court decision, the public was in favor of a DACA law by 74%, or 3 out of every 4 Americans. About 90% of Hispanics also favored granting legal status to immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally as children.
Estimates are that this favorable Supreme Court decision will affect about 650,000 immigrants with protection from deportation. There could be a second step of permanent legal status for all law-abiding undocumented illegals on the football playing fields of the near future.