V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
As we enter the 2020 year, two of the biggest events will be the 2020 U.S. Census and the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. The PEW Research Center released the latest estimates for the Hispanic population, which will be over 60 million when the U.S. Census is finalized. This report brings us up to date on the U.S. Hispanic population and its potential for the 2020 Presidential election. All who care about and analyze the Hispanic vote in the next election, should read this research report, as it is an advance report on what to expect from the next U.S. Census.
Some key points:
V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.
We know from our own polling in August of 2019 (N=500 registered Republicans in 5 of the largest counties), that the illegal immigration issue was more than twice the focus of Texas Republicans than the general economy. But, that’s not the priority that Hispanics are setting for themselves in the next election.
A Texas statewide poll conducted by Univision (August 2019) revealed a lot more issues of concern for Texas Hispanics than immigration. Another statewide poll of Latino Voters, but in California, conducted by Latino Decisions (June 2019) showed almost an identical list of issue priorities, as that of the Texas poll. The two charts below show that lowering cost of healthcare, improving wages, affordable housing, and creating more jobs, were some of the most important. As you can see, Hispanic issues are all about life-centric economic concerns, totally different than the Republican survey taken by our PAC.
by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. December 4, 2019
As it is often said, “Change is inevitable” or, as others say, “Nothing ever stays the same”.
The Hispanic population in Texas has shifted considerably since the last U.S. Census in 2010. A report by the PEW Research Center in advance of the next year’s Census (“In a Rising Number of U.S. Counties, Hispanic Americans are The Majority”, November 20, 2019; and, “Key Facts about How the U.S. Hispanic Population is Changing”, September 8, 2016) that took a look at the growth of the Hispanic population state by state and, since 2010, showed that several counties in Texas will catch your eye.
For example, Andrews County had a Hispanic population in 2000 of 40.0%, but in the 2018 estimates, it now has a majority of the population as Hispanic (56.6%). Ector County, in West Texas, jumped from 42.4% Hispanic to a now majority of 61.3% of the total population; a +19% jump in just eight years.
These population estimates by PEW in 2018, using US Census interim data, confirm that the ethnic population of Hispanics in Texas is now moving from minority status to majority status in many counties. Hispanics will be now a real force in Texas politics at the local level, as well as the state level.
A recent national survey by the Pew Research Center in Wash DC noted that a strong majority (67 %) of US citizens will support some sort of legal residency for illegal immigrants.
Our own poll in August of this year found that Republicans in Texas (N=500) would support non-voting legal residency for:
- families who have lived in Texas for 7 years or more and
- who have no criminal offenses
by 57% (with 23% for citizenship and another 17 % for neither)
This national Pew poll shows that our " third way " approach by our PAC is going in the right direction and a new pathway for Republicans in 2020.
1. The Texas Latino GOP PAC released today a Texas poll conducted in 5 of the largest urban counties in Texas, among 500 Republican Primary voters, which was designed to test a new GOP approach for campaigning for the Hispanic vote in 2020 and to identify Democratic reform proposals that should be the top targets for Republicans to campaign against in 2020.
In the spirit of Fiestas Patrias and Hispanic Heritage Month this poll identifies an independent theme for Republicans to campaign for the Hispanic vote in 2020.
This poll calls for a “Beyond the Wall” strategy for use by Republican candidates and it is based on giving legal status to undocumented immigrant families, who have lived lawfully in Texas, for 7 or more years. This “Family Stabilization Proposal” is not citizenship and, thus non-voting, but allows those illegal immigrant families to gain a legal residence in the United States that provides human dignity without any constraints or prejudices. This new approach for the GOP widens the conversation, which in the recent past, was only a debate between building a wall on the border or amnesty for all those illegal immigrants who “cut in front of the line” and entered into the U.S.