November 14, 2022
- Governor Abbott won reelection by almost 1 million votes in 2022 and the Texas Hispanic vote was a major focus of his election coalitional support. Republican victories down the ballot were felt prominently in South Texas where the GOP continued to win races after targeting this historically Democratic region of Texas. Gone are the days of unquestioned Democratic control of Hispanics in South Texas, as Republicans have aggressively gained new important footholds in the region.
- Despite efforts by the national Democratic Party to make Texas more of a leftist state, Hispanics are now assuring the GOP consistency of their continued majority. According to exit polls, Governor Abbott received 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas and that has helped Republicans in Texas to have now won 166 consecutive statewide elections over the last 25 years. The Houston Chronicle (November 11, 2022) headlined, “Blowout Midterm Losses Leave Texas Democrats Again Searching for Statewide Competitiveness”.
- Republicans gained a new political platform in South Texas in which to launch further inroads – winning the 15th District U.S. House of Representatives. Two other U.S. House Districts which were hotly contested will be top targets for the national Republican Party in the next presidential election. The Texas GOP also gained a new State Representative in South Texas and held control of two other state districts traditionally held by Democrats. These wins are “ significant gains that would’ve unimaginable a few cycles ago “. ( The Texas Tribune, 11/10/22 )
- The strongest showing among Hispanics, nationally, according to exit polls was among married Hispanic men and married Hispanic women – 66% and 50%, respectively, who voted Republican in the 2022 midterm national elections. Overall, this means the Republican Party, nationally, did best among middleclass Latino families. The Republican credo of “Faith, Family, and Freedom” is obviously a strong driver of support from Hispanic families.
- Actual election results of 2022 in the Hispanic dominant 6 counties in South Texas which have historically voted Democrat expose the new trends. These results from 2022 show that there is an unmistakable trend to Republicans ( Beto O”Rourke being the common denominator ) :
Percentage of GOP Vote Support Between Midterms
South 2018 (%) 2022 (%) Net Change (%)
Texas (Cruz/Beto) (Abbott/Beto)
Starr 23 41 +18
Zapata 37 53 +16
Hidalgo 31 41 +10
Webb 28 38 +10
Willacy 36 44 +8
Cameron 37 45 +8
- Recent national polling of Hispanics has shed light on the Hispanic realignment trends to the GOP (NBC/Telemundo, N=1000 Latino registered voters, September 2022). Among those Hispanics who said they self-identified as any type of Independent voter, but now say they once thought of themselves as Democrats, was recorded at about 30%. As far as current Hispanics who self identify as Republican, 26% of these have previously thought of themselves as Democrats or Independents – another positive uptrend for Republicans.
- This poll also found that 34% have a negative opinion of the Democratic Party brand and that the most important issue facing our country was a 55 % subtotal of the “cost of living” (23%), “jobs and the economy” (17%), “the situation at the border” (11%) and “crime” (4%); The Democratic progressive issues registered a subtotal of 41% (“threats to democracy”, “climate change”, “guns”, “abortion”, and “healthcare”). This is a positive +14 for the Republican brand of issues which provide vote determinant frameworks for GOP candidates..
Those Hispanics in the national poll said both immigration and the situation at the border were priorities rather than the economy, 25% when combined, of which border security was rated more of a priority by nearly a 2:1 margin.
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