How the Hispanic Population in Texas is Changing

by V. Lance Tarrance, Jr. December 4, 2019

texas.jpgAs it is often said, “Change is inevitable” or, as others say, “Nothing ever stays the same”.

The Hispanic population in Texas has shifted considerably since the last U.S. Census in 2010. A report by the PEW Research Center in advance of the next year’s Census (“In a Rising Number of U.S. Counties, Hispanic Americans are The Majority”, November 20, 2019; and, “Key Facts about How the U.S. Hispanic Population is Changing”, September 8, 2016) that took a look at the growth of the Hispanic population state by state and, since 2010, showed that several counties in Texas will catch your eye.

For example, Andrews County had a Hispanic population in 2000 of 40.0%, but in the 2018 estimates, it now has a majority of the population as Hispanic (56.6%). Ector County, in West Texas, jumped from 42.4% Hispanic to a now majority of 61.3% of the total population; a +19% jump in just eight years.

These population estimates by PEW in 2018, using US Census interim data, confirm that the ethnic population of Hispanics in Texas is now moving from minority status to majority status in many counties. Hispanics will be now a real force in Texas politics at the local level, as well as the state level.

Here are some examples of some of the large Hispanic population shifts in advance of the 2020 U.S. Census (PEW Research Center estimates, November 20, 2019):

NEW MAJORITIES OF HISPANICS IN SELECTED TEXAS COUNTIES

New_Majorities_Graph.jpg

  2000 2018
Hale 47.8 59.7
Ector 42.4 61.3
Dawson 48.2 58.1
Andrews 40.0 56.6
Gonzales 39.6 51.5
San Patricio 49.4 58.4

The following counties in Texas show even larger majorities of Hispanic population, which exhibits even more political power:

LARGER MAJORITIES OF HISPANIC POPULATION IN SELECTED TEXAS COUNTIES

Larger_Majorities_Graph.jpg

  2000 2018
Bexar 54.3 60.5
El Paso 78.2 83
Nueces 55.8 64.2
Hidalgo 88.4 92.4
Webb 94.3 95.5

POLITICAL BOTTOM LINE:

Based upon a considerable number of voter surveys over the past several years, the Texas Republican Party needs to obtain 35-45% of the Hispanic voter turnout to be competitive in 2020 and beyond.