From The Atlantic (January 14, 2020 by Christian Paz)

Political organizers who have been in the field in the past few months canvassing the Hispanic vote provided a new insight into the run-up to the 2020 elections.  Three key points in the article are: 

•  "The first warning sign of the new year came three days into 2020.  (President Donald Trump) ...speaking at a rally of conservative evangelicals in south Florida...what the Democrats missed was the significance of the rally's location: the home of the country's largest Hispanic evangelical congregation."

January 4, 2020
by Lance Tarrance, Jr.

New state- by- state population estimates released at the end of 2019 in advance of the 2020 US Census count showed more signs that Southern and Western states will gain new political power when the 2020 Census is finalized (the next census count begins on April 15, 2020 by December 15, 2020).

The “where” is important because in the states where the population has geopolitically shifted, the Hispanic vote is set to be the swing vote in many of them. The number of U.S. House seats is set at 435, so if some states have lost population relative to others ( and now have lost House seats for the next 10 years), it also means other faster growing states will gain U.S. House seats and increase their relevant political power for the next 10 years¹.

1 Adamy, Janet and Overberg, Paul (2019, December 31). Population Shift Helps South and Southwest, Wall Street Journal, pp. A1,A4.

The chart below shows where the political power has shifted towards states with strong Hispanic populations, such as Texas, Florida, and Arizona.

January, 2020
V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.

As we enter the 2020 year, two of the biggest events will be the 2020 U.S. Census and the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. The PEW Research Center released the latest estimates for the Hispanic population, which will be over 60 million when the U.S. Census is finalized. This report brings us up to date on the U.S. Hispanic population and its potential for the 2020 Presidential election. All who care about and analyze the Hispanic vote in the next election, should read this research report, as it is an advance report on what to expect from the next U.S. Census.

Some key points:

January, 2020
V. Lance Tarrance, Jr.

We know from our own polling in August of 2019 (N=500 registered Republicans in 5 of the largest counties), that the illegal immigration issue was more than twice the focus of Texas Republicans than the general economy. But, that’s not the priority that Hispanics are setting for themselves in the next election.

A Texas statewide poll conducted by Univision (August 2019) revealed a lot more issues of concern for Texas Hispanics than immigration. Another statewide poll of Latino Voters, but in California, conducted by Latino Decisions (June 2019) showed almost an identical list of issue priorities, as that of the Texas poll. The two charts below show that lowering cost of healthcare, improving wages, affordable housing, and creating more jobs, were some of the most important. As you can see, Hispanic issues are all about life-centric economic concerns, totally different than the Republican survey taken by our PAC.